El Niño 2026: it’s coming, it’ll be strong — and what you do now
Sensationalist news has exploded. "Super El Niño", "UN alert", "get ready". But what now? Will it happen? Will it be strong? What should I do now? A practical guide (without panic, with method) for those who need to decide.*
In recent weeks, sensationalist news about El Niño has exploded. "Super El Niño". "UN Alert". "Prepare for the worst".
But what now? Will it happen? What do you do now?
Let's look at the cold hard numbers, what the models really say and (more importantly) what each sector needs to do in each region of Brazil in the coming months.
The numbers of El Niño 2026 (without sensationalism)
On June 2, 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published its most anticipated bulletin of the year. The report, based on the consensus of models from 14 global forecasting centres, says the following:
Probability:
- +80% chance of El Niño between June and August 2026
- +90% chance of the event persisting until November
Intensity:
- The majority of models indicate intensity between moderate and strong
- Some scenarios point to "very strong" (Pacific temperature anomaly above +1.5°C)
- The WMO does not use the term "super El Niño". It is not an official classification.
- Even moderate El Niños significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns
Context:
- The El Niño 2023-24 was one of the five strongest ever recorded
- The equatorial Pacific Ocean has subsurface waters 6°C above average. It is a reservoir of heat that fuels the phenomenon.
- The climate baseline is 1.3°C warmer than pre-industrial times, which amplifies impacts
A note from the WMO that almost nobody highlighted: "There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events." What it does amplify are the impacts, as a warmer atmosphere holds more energy and moisture, turning natural events into more severe extremes.
The predictability barrier (what the models cannot say now)
The post that went viral on my LinkedIn mentioned a crucial technical point: until May, there is a predictability barrier that models face.
It's worth explaining what this is because it's what separates those who use the information from those who only repeat the alarm.
The spring predictability barrier is a well-known limitation of climate models. Between March and May, the El Niño signal is weaker and models have more difficulty in predicting the exact intensity of the phenomenon. It’s like trying to guess the strength of a wave by looking at the surface of the sea: you see the movement, but you don’t know if it will be a small ripple or a wall of water.
What models can predict with high confidence now (June 2026):
- That El Niño WILL happen. 80-90% chance.
- The start window. Between June and August.
- The typical regional impacts. Known pattern.
What models CANNOT predict with high confidence yet:
- The exact intensity (moderate, strong, or very strong)
- The exact peak temperature of the Pacific
- The precise duration of the event
When this changes:
- From July-August, models gain resolution on intensity
- In September-October, the peak scenario (Nov-Feb) becomes clearer
- The decision window for more costly actions (insurance hiring, temporary infrastructure investments) is August-September
The practical implication: don’t wait for confirmation of intensity to act. What you can decide with 80-90% confidence (that El Niño will happen) is much more than what most companies are currently doing.
Impacts of El Niño 2026 in Brazil by region and sector
Each El Niño has its signature, but the historical pattern for Brazil is consistent. What changes is the intensity of the impacts.
South
Typical pattern: significant increase in rainfall, risk of flooding and landslides.
Ports:
- Rio Grande, Paranaguá, São Francisco do Sul, Imbituba, Itapoá
- Shorter operational windows due to intense rain and strong winds
- Risk of shutdown due to flooding of yards and access roads
- Demurrage tends to increase. The average has already gone from 9h (2019) to 20h (2023) of waiting time.
Agribusiness:
- Excess rain may compromise the summer harvest (soybeans, corn)
- Increase in fungal diseases in crops
- Difficulty in transportation via rural roads
Energy:
- Hydroelectric plants in the Plata Basin (Uruguay, Jacuí): high outflows, risk of spillage
- Transmission lines: risk of failure due to strong winds
Railways:
- TRF (Southern Network): risk of interruption due to flooding of segments
- Landslides in mountainous regions (Serra do Mar, Serra Gaúcha)
Southeast
Typical pattern: irregular rains, volumes concentrated in short periods, alternated with dry spells. More frequent heat waves.
Ports:
- Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Vitória, Angra dos Reis
- Intense and sudden rains: emergency stops, risk of landslides on access roads
- Strong winds: navigation and berthing operations restrictions
Mining:
- Iron Quadrangle (MG): intense rains over short periods overload drainage systems
- Risk of interruption of outflow railways (Vitória-Minas Railway)
- Dams: need for intensified level monitoring
Energy:
- The Southeast concentrates the largest part of the hydroelectric storage of the National Interconnected System (SIN)
- Irregular rains = uncertainty in physical guarantee
- Heat waves = peak demand for air conditioning, overload in distribution
Railways:
- EFVM, MRS Logística: risk of interruption due to flooding and landslides
- Mountainous segments (Serra do Mar, Serra da Mantiqueira) are critical points
North
Typical pattern: more intense drought in the Amazon. Water stress. Increase in forest fires.
Energy:
- Hydroelectric plants in the Madeira River basin (Santo Antônio, Jirau) and the Tapajós (Tucuruí): reduced outflows
- Risk of intensive activation of thermal plants, increasing marginal operating costs
- Navigation on the Madeira and Amazon Rivers: risk of restrictions due to low depth
Mining:
- Carajás (PA): outflow logistics via Carajás Railway depends on water conditions
- Risk of forest fires affecting open-pit operations
Agribusiness:
- Drought in Legal Amazon impacts livestock and lowland agriculture
- Increase in illegal mining in riverbeds with reduced flows. Socio-environmental risk.
Northeast
Typical pattern: drought in the semi-arid region, below-average rainfall in Matopiba.
Agribusiness:
- Matopiba (MA, PI, TO, BA): reduction in rainfall in the summer crop (soybeans, corn, cotton)
- Semi-arid: severe water stress, impact on livestock
- Sugarcane (AL, PE, PB): reduced productivity due to water deficit
Ports:
- Pecém, Suape, Salvador, Aratu
- The main impact is logistical (outflow of reduced harvest)
Energy:
- Hydroelectric plants on the São Francisco River (Sobradinho, Itaparica): reduced outflows
- Wind energy (NE concentrates the largest wind capacity in the country): winds may be affected by the El Niño pattern
Centre-West
Typical pattern: irregular rains, late onset of the rainy season. Impact on the summer crop.
Agribusiness:
- Mato Grosso, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul: delay in soybean planting
- Risk of second harvest (corn, cotton) compromised by shorter planting window
- Livestock: less productive pastures during prolonged drought periods
Energy:
- Hydroelectric plants in the Upper Paraguay and Paraná basins: irregular outflows
What to do now with El Niño: practical actions by horizon
Horizon 1: Immediate. June and July 2026
What you know with high confidence: El Niño will happen (80-90%). Likely moderate to strong intensity. Recommended actions by sector:
Ports:
- Review contingency plans for reduced operational windows
- Strengthen drainage systems in yards and storage areas
- Pre-position pumping equipment and barriers
- Review demurrage contracts with shipping companies. A strong El Niño scenario could pressure the indicator which has already risen from 9h (2019) to 20h (2023).
Energy:
- Review inflow curves for El Niño scenarios by sub-market
- Activate safety protocols for transmission lines in strong wind areas
- Assess the need for additional reserve hiring
Mining:
- Review drainage plans in pits and piles
- Test pumping and containment systems
- Map critical railway segments by region
Railways:
- Inspect slopes and inclines in mountainous segments
- Review preventive stop protocols for flooding
- Pre-position maintenance teams at critical points
Agribusiness:
- Adjust planting window based on regional rainfall scenario
- Review agricultural insurance contracts
- Plan logistics for outflow considering drought scenarios (North/Northeast) or excess rain (South)
Insurance:
- Review portfolio exposure by region and hazard
- Adjust pricing for new contracts based on the likelihood of a strong El Niño
- Communicate with insured parties regarding additional hiring windows
Horizon 2: Short Term. August to October 2026
What changes: the models gain resolution on intensity. You will know whether we are talking about a moderate or very strong El Niño. Actions:
- Ports: if intensity points to very strong, anticipate investments in temporary infrastructure
- Energy: strong scenario → plan activation of thermal plants in the North
- Mining: strong scenario → reinforce dam monitoring in the Southeast
- Agribusiness: strong scenario → adjust crop mix and future selling contracts
- Insurers: strong scenario → provision for expected claims
Horizon 3: Medium Term. November 2026 to February 2027
What you know: El Niño is at its peak. The impacts are happening. Actions:
- Real-time monitoring with local resolution (1 km vs 25 km from public alerts)
- Activation of specific contingency plans per asset
- Continuous communication with stakeholders (investors, insurers, regulators)
80-90% probability is not an alarm. It is a baseline scenario.
I'm returning to what I wrote on LinkedIn: the models are converging. What does not converge is the intensity.
But 80-90% probability of an event that directly impacts port, railway, mining, energy, and agricultural operations is not "something that may or may not happen".
It is the most likely scenario.
And the difference between a company that treats this as a management variable and one that treats it as news is in the actions it takes between June and August 2026, before knowing the exact intensity.
The antidote to sensationalism is not to deny El Niño. It is to treat it methodically: probability, not prophecy. Measurable risk, not inevitable event.
Breathe. Create the plan. Act.
And monitor with resolution data that allows you to adjust the course when the intensity becomes clear.
This blog is part of the "Climate without Panic" series by i4sea, translating climate science into business decision-making.
Want a PDF summary of scenarios by sector, region, and action horizon? Download the El Niño 2026 Guide below.