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Which is the best weather forecast?

Mariana Thévenin
Mariana Thévenin

Head of Marketing

9 min read
Which is the best weather forecast?

The question "which is the best weather forecast?" has a hidden catch. Weather forecasts come from numerical forecast models; most websites and apps present the same data in different formats, so the "best" site is the one that presents information most usefully to you.

Which is the best weather forecast model?

Models like ECMWF, ICON, GFS, and WWIII are developed by agencies like NOAA. Choosing between free and paid sites depends on preference since they use similar data. What matters is evaluating model performance for your specific region.

There are three ways to assess accuracy:

  1. Custom accuracy analysis for your location
  2. Checking overall forecast accuracy
  3. Understanding important features of numerical models

How to know which is the best forecast?

Three basic characteristics define the quality of a forecast: spatial resolution, temporal resolution, and update frequency.

What is the spatial resolution?

Spatial Resolution

Spatial resolution can be compared to pixels in a photo. It ranges from meters (hyperlocal) to tens of kilometers (global). The best resolution depends on your goal.

What is the temporal resolution?

Temporal Resolution

Temporal resolution refers to hourly vs every-3-hours data. Transient phenomena can be missed with coarse temporal resolution.

How often are weather forecasts updated?

Typically 1-4 times per day (every 6 hours). More updates generally means better quality.

What is the best forecasting model for my region?

Forecast Models Comparison

Comparison of the main models:

  • GFS/WWIII — 22 km resolution
  • ICON — 13 km (optimized for Europe)
  • ECMWF — 9 km (highest resolution, considered most effective globally)

How to make better decisions based on weather forecasts?

Global models are good at extremes and frequent conditions but cannot resolve local coastal differences. A 9 km resolution means data can be up to 9 km from your actual location.

5 tips for making better decisions

  1. Use sites that show model metadata
  2. Check right after updates
  3. Finalize decisions close to event time
  4. Plan for divergent forecasts
  5. Use local sensor data when available

For a platform that combines all these features, check out i4cast.

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