Climate hazard in Brazilian capitals by 2050
The i4sea Climate Index shows, from 0 to 100, how much heat, warm nights, extreme rain and strong wind will change in each Brazilian state capital by 2050. Each city is compared with its own normal, city by city, not by region. It is the first step to measure your operation’s climate risk.
- Capitals
- 27
- Hazards
- 4
- Horizon
- 2050
- Scenario
- IPCC pessimistic
How to read the number
| Level | Heat and warm nights | Rain and wind |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 24 Low | Close to normal: 1 to 2 in 10 days | Up to 3% stronger |
| 25 to 49 Moderate | 2 to 3 in 10 days | 3% to 7% stronger |
| 50 to 74 High | 3 to 5 in 10 days | 7% to 14% stronger |
| 75 to 100 Very high | 6 to 9 in 10 days: the extreme becomes routine | 14% to 30% stronger, or more |
Compare the 27 capitals
Worst hazard of each city. "By 2050" shows how many points the index goes up compared with recent years (2023 to 2025).
| Capital | Main hazard | Index | By 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manaus | Warm nights | 95, Very high | +27 |
| Macapá | Heat | 88, Very high | +25 |
| Boa Vista | Warm nights | 82, Very high | +25 |
| Rio Branco | Warm nights | 80, Very high | +25 |
| Belém | Heat | 80, Very high | +20 |
| Porto Velho | Warm nights | 80, Very high | +24 |
| Teresina | Heat | 79, Very high | +12 |
| Palmas | Heat | 75, Very high | +14 |
| Cuiabá | Warm nights | 69, High | +25 |
| Brasília | Heat | 67, High | +14 |
| Vitória | Warm nights | 67, High | +31 |
| Goiânia | Heat | 66, High | +12 |
| São Luís | Heat | 66, High | +29 |
| Aracaju | Warm nights | 66, High | +49 |
| Campo Grande | Warm nights | 65, High | +23 |
| João Pessoa | Warm nights | 65, High | +60 |
| Maceió | Warm nights | 64, High | +44 |
| Fortaleza | Warm nights | 62, High | +62 |
| Recife | Warm nights | 62, High | +62 |
| Belo Horizonte | Warm nights | 61, High | +27 |
| Natal | Warm nights | 60, High | +60 |
| Salvador | Heat | 58, High | +25 |
| São Paulo | Heat | 56, High | +13 |
| Rio de Janeiro | Warm nights | 55, High | +45 |
| Curitiba | Heat | 54, High | +16 |
| Florianópolis | Strong wind | 54, High | +54 |
| Porto Alegre | Warm nights | 39, Moderate | +33 |
Questions we hear about i4sea Climate Index
A climate hazard index from 0 to 100. It shows how much heat, warm nights, extreme rain and strong wind will change in each Brazilian state capital by 2050. It is built with i4climate, the i4sea climate database: global climate models detailed in 3 km squares, neighborhood by neighborhood.
Read the sentence just below the number. It tells you, for example, how many days in 10 will be unusually hot.
It is hazard: what the climate will do. Risk also depends on the physical features of the land and the address, on what is exposed and on how much the operation can take.
Because strong heat in Porto Alegre is not the same as in Manaus.
The full methodology is in the e-book, at the bottom of the page.
Yes. Quote it like this: "Source: i4sea Climate Index, October 2026", with a link to this page.